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Trust

How Trust works

Trust is a number from 0 to 100 that means one thing: how right you are when it counts.

The one-sentence version

Every call you picked a side on gets scored when it resolves, by weighing how sure you said you were against what actually happened, and Trust is those scores rolled into one number.

What moves it

  • Being right on calls that have resolved. Only settled calls count, so an open pick is worth nothing until the answer is known.
  • How sure you said you were. Saying 90% and being wrong costs more than saying 55% and being wrong, and saying 90% and being right earns more than saying 55% and being right.
  • Being right when the crowd was wrong. A pick against what everyone else thought, that turns out right, counts the most. Agreeing with the room and being right earns very little.

What never moves it

  • Your own personal calls. A call about something you will do gives you no Trust either way, because you control the outcome. Everyone else who picked a side on it is scored as normal.
  • Money. A pick with $500 on it and a free pick score exactly the same.
  • Referrals and showing up. Bringing people in, posting every day and being active count towards Standing, never Trust.

When you see it

Your profile shows New until five of your calls have resolved. Three lucky picks are not a record, and a number built on three would mislead everyone who read it, including you.

Saying a number that means what it says

The thing Trust rewards has a name, calibration, and it means this: when you say 70%, it should happen about 70% of the time.

Say 70% on ten calls, and about seven of them should come true.

If all ten come true, you were more sure than you let on and should have said a higher number. If only four do, you were too sure. The people with the highest Trust here are not the ones who are right most often. They are the ones who say 60% when it is 60% and 90% when it is 90%, and who will say a number the room disagrees with.

Standing is not Trust

Your profile shows a second track called Standing. It is for showing up and bringing people in, and it never touches Trust.

  • A call, a pick or a stake earns 10 a day. Once a day, and only when you actually do one of those.
  • A resolved call you were in earns 5, as long as someone else took part, and settling your own call on time earns another 5.
  • A referral pays 50 to you and 25 to them, but only once they have three resolved calls of their own.

Standing goes through six levels, New, Regular, Fixture, Backbone, Pillar and Institution, at 100, 300, 700, 1500 and 3000. Levels unlock extra calls per day and, later, higher stake limits. Someone can have a high Standing and a low Trust, and you deserve to see both.

How calls get resolved →